Weekend Update


Market Update

  • Credit Rating Agency Fitch said it is moving the US to “rating watch negative” Fitch is one of the 3 major credit rating agencies.
  • Kevin McCarthy says he thinks we’re going to get a deal done on the debt ceiling soon. If a deal gets done, it can help as long as they don’t throw in a bunch of new spending. 
  • Some of the Fed members are still saying they think they should do some more hikes, but indications are that they’ll pause or not do it at all. 
  • 60% chance of a pause at the next meeting in June
  • Pending home sales on existing homes was flat from previous month, 20% down year-over-year.  Big decline in sales in the North East, but everywhere else actually sold more. Not enough inventory is the cause.
  • 30 day delinquencies went from 3% to 2.6%, 90+ went up 1.2% to 1.4% People are struggling. Foreclosures are at .3%.  
  • PCE is coming out tomorrow and it won’t move the market much. The Core rate is coming up in June 13th and that number should be favorable. 


-PCE (personal consumption expenditures) shows all-in inflation rose .3% for the month which was expected.

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Used care prices fell .1 year over year and fell .8% in February. Car sales play into inflation numbers

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Bonds are a little down right now so we recommend locking at the moment Congressional Budget Office says the deficit is no 1.6 T. They think it will increase 60% in the next 10 years if nothing was added. That is extremely unlikely.

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