Weekend Update

Date

08/25/2023

Market Update

Credit Rating Agency Fitch said it is moving the US to “rating watch negative” Fitch is one of the 3 major credit rating agencies.
Kevin McCarthy says he thinks we’re going to get a deal done on the debt ceiling soon. If a deal gets done, it can help as long as they don’t throw in a bunch of new spending.
Some of the Fed members are still saying they think they should do some more hikes, but indications are that they’ll pause or not do it at all.
60% chance of a pause at the next meeting in June
Pending home sales on existing homes was flat from previous month, 20% down year-over-year. Big decline in sales in the North East, but everywhere else actually sold more. Not enough inventory is the cause.
30 day delinquencies went from 3% to 2.6%, 90+ went up 1.2% to 1.4% People are struggling. Foreclosures are at .3%.
PCE is coming out tomorrow and it won’t move the market much. The Core rate is coming up in June 13th and that number should be favorable.

4/26/2024

Quarterly 1 GDP shows growth of 1.6% instead of the 2.5% estimated.

3/8/2024

Used care prices fell .1 year over year and fell .8% in February. Car sales play into inflation numbers

Bonds are a little down right now so we recommend locking at the moment Congressional Budget Office says the deficit is no 1.6 T. They think it will increase 60% in the next 10 years if nothing was added. That is extremely unlikely.