Weekend Update
Date
- 02/09/2024
Market Update
- Bonds are a little down right now so we recommend locking at the moment
- Congressional Budget Office says the deficit is no 1.6 T. They think it will increase 60% in the next 10 years if nothing was added. That is extremely unlikely.
- CBO anticipates unemployment will rise to 4.4% by end of 2024 which indicates the Fed might start to cut rates starting 2nd quarter of 2024. Cross your fingers!!
- FNME home purchase estimate index rose to highest level in almost 2 years. However 83% still think it’s not a good time to buy right now, but this number increased because most people feel good about their jobs, inflation coming
down, and they think rates will come down. - Initial jobless claims fell 9,000 to 218,000. Continuing claims fell 23,000, but these levels are the highest since 2021. Once people lose their jobs, it’s hard to find a new one.
7/26/2024
PCE came in this morning. It wasn’t as low as we’d hoped, but mortgage-backed securities are actually doing ok and going the right direction.
7/12/2024
Fed members seem to be leaning towards a rate cut. We may be on the cusp of things turning around finally!
5/31/2024
-PCE (personal consumption expenditures) shows all-in inflation rose .3% for the month which was expected.
5/24/2024
The market is going back and forth. We make some progress and then it reverses.
5/10/2024
There is not a ton of news for this week, but the big CPI report comes out next week.
