Weekend Update


Market Update

  • It’s been a rough week for mortgage rates. I know we are all feeling it.  HANG IN THERE! 
  • On average, a recession starts 22 months after the Fed begins to hike rates. We are at month 17.
  • Some say we won’t have a recession or will have a shallow recession.  Others believe we’ll hav ea recession due to:
    • The yield curve continues to be severely inverted
    • The full slowdown impact from the Fed hikes has yet to be felt
    • Consumer spending appears to strong, a lot of that is on credit though which can’t last forever.  Outstanding credit card debt has surpassed $1T and is at near record high rates
    • Student loan payments will begin again Oct 1
    • Excess savings depleted from stimulus- was $500 billion in March and has fallen to $190 Billion in June.


-PCE (personal consumption expenditures) shows all-in inflation rose .3% for the month which was expected.

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Used care prices fell .1 year over year and fell .8% in February. Car sales play into inflation numbers

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Bonds are a little down right now so we recommend locking at the moment Congressional Budget Office says the deficit is no 1.6 T. They think it will increase 60% in the next 10 years if nothing was added. That is extremely unlikely.

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