Weekend Update
Date
- 08/18/2023
Market Update
- It’s been a rough week for mortgage rates. I know we are all feeling it. HANG IN THERE!
- On average, a recession starts 22 months after the Fed begins to hike rates. We are at month 17.
- Some say we won’t have a recession or will have a shallow recession. Others believe we’ll hav ea recession due to:
- The yield curve continues to be severely inverted
- The full slowdown impact from the Fed hikes has yet to be felt
- Consumer spending appears to strong, a lot of that is on credit though which can’t last forever. Outstanding credit card debt has surpassed $1T and is at near record high rates
- Student loan payments will begin again Oct 1
- Excess savings depleted from stimulus- was $500 billion in March and has fallen to $190 Billion in June.
7/26/2024
PCE came in this morning. It wasn’t as low as we’d hoped, but mortgage-backed securities are actually doing ok and going the right direction.
7/12/2024
Fed members seem to be leaning towards a rate cut. We may be on the cusp of things turning around finally!
5/31/2024
-PCE (personal consumption expenditures) shows all-in inflation rose .3% for the month which was expected.
5/24/2024
The market is going back and forth. We make some progress and then it reverses.
5/10/2024
There is not a ton of news for this week, but the big CPI report comes out next week.
